Arizona governor rides popularity of tough new immigration law

Only nine months ago, politically speaking, Jan Brewer had flatlined; the Arizona governor's approval rating was at 22 percent. And as recently as three months ago, a Rasmussen poll of likely voters showed her trailing her likely opponent, state Attorney General Terry Goddard, by nearly 10 points in the runup to November's gubernatorial election.
But voters in the Grand Canyon State have been singing a different tune since April, when Brewer signed SB1070 -- the state immigration law that has become the focus of a national controversy.

Since then, Brewer's approval ratings have skyrocketed, catapulting her to the top of the polls in the gubernatorial race and launching what may be the biggest political comeback of the year in the U.S.

Just one month after signing the law, Brewer had taken a 13-point lead over Goddard, with 52 percent of likely voters backing her candidacy, according to Rasmussen Reports.

It's a remarkable turnaround for Brewer, who assumed office last year when Gov. Janet Napolitano resigned to become President Obama's secretary of homeland security. Brewer has pulled far ahead in Arizona's Aug. 24 Republican primary race, and she has emerged virtually overnight as a national figure in the debate over border security and illegal immigration.

Matt Roberts, communications director at Arizona Republican Party headquarters in Phoenix, says Brewer's comeback is all the more impressive considering how far behind she was when she took office.

"Our former governor really left our current governor in a bad spot," Roberts said. "The voters hold elected officials accountable, and maybe her polling figures that have gone up are due to the fact that things are going better."

In a second legislative victory last month, Brewer rallied voters to pass a temporary sales-tax increase to help combat the state's budget crisis. She also delighted conservatives earlier this spring when she circumvented Goddard's office in filing a lawsuit that challenges the president's health care law.

But the signature issue in Brewer's surge is Arizona's immigration law, which makes it illegal to be an undocumented immigrant in the state and empowers law enforcement officials to question people they suspect are illegal immigrants about their status. Seventy-one percent of voters in the state support the law, and 63 percent say immigration is "very important" in determining how they will vote. Goddard has said he opposes the law, and Brewer has now hired outside counsel to defend her and the state against impending lawsuits.

Despite the kerfuffle, Rand Paul still leads Conway by 25 points

A lot of the handwringing over Rand Paul's electability in November is overdone. A Rasmussen poll was released today that showed Paul leading Democratic nominee Jack Conway by 25 points, 59 percent to 34 percent. Kentucky Democrats nominated the more liberal candidate who supports Obamacare and will not be able to exploit Paul's "heterodox" social views -- which are also overblown -- in the general election.

That said, Paul's comments about the Civil Rights Act of 1964 were an example of what not to do. Throughout the primary campaign, Trey Grayson tried to bait Paul into theoretical discussions of libertarianism and controversial theories with which many libertarians agree. Ron Paul relishes such discussions and sees his professorial role as an important part of why he is in politics. The younger Paul is trying to bring serious constitutionalism back into the mainstream and has wisely avoided etting the focus drift into things that are not live issues -- until now.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 22% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21. That matches the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for President Obama.

The only other time the Approval Index was this low came in late December as the U.S. Senate prepared to approve its version of health care reform (see trends). Most voters continue to oppose the proposed health care plan.

45% believe random selection would produce a better Congress; 12% think it's doing good job

During his State-of-the-Union address Wednesday night, President Obama spoke about a deficit of trust between the American people and political leaders. New Rasmussen Reports polling on the president’s speech shows just how deep that trust deficit has become.

The president in the speech declared that his administration has cut taxes for 95% of Americans. He even chided Republicans for not applauding on that point. However, just 21% of voters nationwide believe that taxes have been cut for 95% of Americans. Most (53%) say it has not happened, and 26% are not sure. Other polling shows that nearly half the nation’s voters expect their own taxes to go up during the Obama years.

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It’s important to note that the deficit of trust applies to all politicians, not just President Obama. “Americans are united in the belief that our political system is broken, that politicians are corrupt, and that neither major political party has the answers,” according to Scott Rasmussen in his new book, In Search of Self-Governance,


Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republican voters say their party’s representatives are out of touch with the party’s base. Other data shows that, among all voters, 45% believe people randomly selected from the phone book would do a better job than the current Congress. Only 36% disagree. Overall, only 12% say that Congress is doing a good or an excellent job.

71 % of voters unhappy with feds; 29 % to go

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters nationwide say they’re at least somewhat angry about the current policies of the federal government. That figure includes 46% who are Very Angry.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only 27% are not angry about the government's policies, including 10% who are Not at All Angry.

Men are angrier than women, and voters over 40 are more angry than those who are younger. A majority of those over 40 are Very Angry. Only 25% of under-30 voters share that view.

The data suggests that the level of anger is growing. The 71% who are angry at federal government policies today is up five percentage points since September.

Even more stunning, the 46% who are Very Angry is up 10 percentage points from September.

Among the nation’s Political Class, just six percent (6%) are angry. However, among those with more Mainstream, or populist, views, 85% are angry. A majority of Americans today hold views that can be described as Mainstream or populist. Very few align with the Political Class (see more information on this divide).

Call in the death panel; ObamaCare too sick to save

Just 38% of voters now favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s the lowest level of support measured for the plan in nearly two dozen tracking polls conducted since June.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% now oppose the plan.

Half the survey was conducted before the Senate voted late Saturday to begin debate on its version of the legislation. Support for the plan was slightly lower in the half of the survey conducted after the Senate vote.

Prior to this, support for the plan had never fallen below 41%. Last week, support for the plan was at 47%. Two weeks ago, the effort was supported by 45% of voters.

Obama at 46 %

Strongly opinionated drop Obama near record low

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13. That’s just a point above the lowest level ever recorded for this President. It’s also the sixth straight day in negative double digits, matching the longest such streak (see trends).

Just 31% of voters believe that Congress has a good understanding of the health care proposal.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Republicans have a favorable opinion of their party’s national chairman, Michael Steele.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available on Twitter and Facebook.

Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

57 % would like to fire entire U.S. Congress

"If they could vote to keep or replace the entire Congress, just 25% of voters nationwide would keep the current batch of legislators.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 57% would vote to replace the entire Congress and start all over again. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure how they would vote.

Overall, these numbers are little changed since last October."