Tuesday’s election results were a disaster for the White House and the Democratic party. Not only did the Obama coalition of young voters and minorities not return to the polls (African-American turnout fell from 20 to 16 percent of the electorate in Virginia, for example, while the youth vote fell by 50 percent from 2008), but independents abandoned Obama’s favored candidates in droves. Chris Christie carried indies by a 58–30 percent margin in a three-way race, and Bob McDonnell won independents two-to-one.
Perhaps that is why the White House spin machine — personified by David Axelrod and David Plouffe — went into overdrive to suggest that (the) truly salient fact that came out of 2009 was the impending civil war between conservatives and moderates in the Grand Old Party.
This is utter nonsense.
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Friday, November 6, 2009
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Virginia, NJ voters turn thumbs down on Obama
One year after President Obama swept to power on a promise of “hope” and “change,” American voters got an early chance to pass judgment on his administration. If yesterday’s Republican victories in Democratic strongholds like Virginia and New Jersey are any guide, they don’t like what they see.
While results from around the country were still coming in at press time, the outcome of the race in Virginia is proof positive that the sands have shifted beneath the administration’s feet. Last year, Barack Obama became the first Democrat presidential candidate to win the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. The Left and their media allies swooned with excitement, and portrayed the 230,000 vote margin of victory as a sure sign that the Republican hold on the state was broken. Democrats were winning the culture wars in what had once been safely Republican territory, it was claimed. Tomes were written performing autopsies on Virginia’s GOP, examining personal rivalries and acrimony, sloppy communication and a demoralized base as reasons for the surprising defeat. Such was the Democrats’ glee that Virginia Republicans were all but added to the registry of endangered species.
A year later, their demise seems greatly exaggerated. Virginia has gone solidly Republican, with the GOP wining the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, and, according to the early results, winning them by wide margins. This is bad news indeed for the Democrats, as they current hold six of the state’s 11 Congressional seats. A reenergized state-level GOP organization will now have a full year to raise funds, mobilize support, and make a hard push to put the state back firmly in the red column in next year’s midterm elections.
A similar story has unfolded in New Jersey, where Republican challenger Christopher Christie has defeated Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine – this even as he was outspent 3-1 by the billionaire governor who sunk some $23 million of his own money into the general election race. As is typical of New Jersey politics, the issue of corruption in the state’s government was a campaign hot-button. Yet polls — including today’s exit polls — showed that most voters are worried about taxes and the economy.
The New Jersey result is particularly ominous for Obama, who campaigned for Corzine this past weekend but failed to sway the vote in his favor – another sign of his rapidly fading star power. After witnessing nine months of massive spending surges in the midst of a recession, and detecting no clear plan of how to pay for any of it, it is no wonder that New Jersey voters worried about their taxes and the struggling economy would fail to be impressed by the president’s appeal.
While results from around the country were still coming in at press time, the outcome of the race in Virginia is proof positive that the sands have shifted beneath the administration’s feet. Last year, Barack Obama became the first Democrat presidential candidate to win the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. The Left and their media allies swooned with excitement, and portrayed the 230,000 vote margin of victory as a sure sign that the Republican hold on the state was broken. Democrats were winning the culture wars in what had once been safely Republican territory, it was claimed. Tomes were written performing autopsies on Virginia’s GOP, examining personal rivalries and acrimony, sloppy communication and a demoralized base as reasons for the surprising defeat. Such was the Democrats’ glee that Virginia Republicans were all but added to the registry of endangered species.
A year later, their demise seems greatly exaggerated. Virginia has gone solidly Republican, with the GOP wining the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, and, according to the early results, winning them by wide margins. This is bad news indeed for the Democrats, as they current hold six of the state’s 11 Congressional seats. A reenergized state-level GOP organization will now have a full year to raise funds, mobilize support, and make a hard push to put the state back firmly in the red column in next year’s midterm elections.
A similar story has unfolded in New Jersey, where Republican challenger Christopher Christie has defeated Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine – this even as he was outspent 3-1 by the billionaire governor who sunk some $23 million of his own money into the general election race. As is typical of New Jersey politics, the issue of corruption in the state’s government was a campaign hot-button. Yet polls — including today’s exit polls — showed that most voters are worried about taxes and the economy.
The New Jersey result is particularly ominous for Obama, who campaigned for Corzine this past weekend but failed to sway the vote in his favor – another sign of his rapidly fading star power. After witnessing nine months of massive spending surges in the midst of a recession, and detecting no clear plan of how to pay for any of it, it is no wonder that New Jersey voters worried about their taxes and the struggling economy would fail to be impressed by the president’s appeal.
In politics, winning anywhere is big, losing is trivial
Heh.
No doubt the RNC response was to insist that they were merely local races signifying nothing about the national mood.
But Rahm was right that time, wasn’t he?
[L]ooking back at First Read’s coverage the day after the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia contests, we had forgotten that Rahm Emanuel — then chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and now White House chief of staff — had called us to argue the very point Republicans are now making: that the two gubernatorial contests say something about the upcoming midterms.
Here’s what we wrote then:
Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel, calling First Read immediately after Kaine’s and Corzine’s victories were announced, argued that it’s clear Democratic voters were already energized earlier in the year when Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won a traditionally GOP-leaning Ohio House district. “I think that’s even more true today.” He also pointed out that the mayors of Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Paul, MN were all losing. “A lot of incumbents are losing to change,” he said (although he neglected to mention that these three mayors are Democrats, though the one from St. Paul endorsed Bush last year).
No doubt the RNC response was to insist that they were merely local races signifying nothing about the national mood.
But Rahm was right that time, wasn’t he?
[L]ooking back at First Read’s coverage the day after the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia contests, we had forgotten that Rahm Emanuel — then chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and now White House chief of staff — had called us to argue the very point Republicans are now making: that the two gubernatorial contests say something about the upcoming midterms.
Here’s what we wrote then:
Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel, calling First Read immediately after Kaine’s and Corzine’s victories were announced, argued that it’s clear Democratic voters were already energized earlier in the year when Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won a traditionally GOP-leaning Ohio House district. “I think that’s even more true today.” He also pointed out that the mayors of Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Paul, MN were all losing. “A lot of incumbents are losing to change,” he said (although he neglected to mention that these three mayors are Democrats, though the one from St. Paul endorsed Bush last year).
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Voters: Forget elections, use random selection
A new finding by Rasmussen Reports opens up the possibility of huge savings in time and money, with no loss in quality, through cancellation of future congressional elections:
"Forty-two percent (42%) say people randomly selected from the phone book could do a better job than the current Congress."
This brings back fond memories of Wiliam F. Buckley, founder of National Review, who famaously said, "I'd rather be governed by the first fifty names in the Boston telephone book than by the faculty of Harvard."
"Forty-two percent (42%) say people randomly selected from the phone book could do a better job than the current Congress."
This brings back fond memories of Wiliam F. Buckley, founder of National Review, who famaously said, "I'd rather be governed by the first fifty names in the Boston telephone book than by the faculty of Harvard."
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Republicans face a daunting blue wall
Pat Buchanan assesses Republican prospects, and finds them grim.
"Put succinctly, the red pool of voters is aging, shrinking and dying, while the blue pool, fed by high immigration and a high birth rate among immigrants, is steadily expanding.
Philosophically, too, the country is turning away from the GOP creed of small government and low taxes. Why?
Nearly 90 percent of immigrants, legal and illegal, are Third World poor or working-class and believe in and rely on government for help with health and housing, education and welfare. Second, tax cuts have dropped nearly 40 percent of wage earners from the tax rolls.
If one pays no federal income tax but reaps a cornucopia of benefits, it makes no sense to vote for the party of less government.
The GOP is overrepresented among the taxpaying class, while the Democratic Party is overrepresented among tax consumers. And the latter are growing at a faster rate than the former."
http://www.vdare.com/buchanan/090119_gop.htm
"Put succinctly, the red pool of voters is aging, shrinking and dying, while the blue pool, fed by high immigration and a high birth rate among immigrants, is steadily expanding.
Philosophically, too, the country is turning away from the GOP creed of small government and low taxes. Why?
Nearly 90 percent of immigrants, legal and illegal, are Third World poor or working-class and believe in and rely on government for help with health and housing, education and welfare. Second, tax cuts have dropped nearly 40 percent of wage earners from the tax rolls.
If one pays no federal income tax but reaps a cornucopia of benefits, it makes no sense to vote for the party of less government.
The GOP is overrepresented among the taxpaying class, while the Democratic Party is overrepresented among tax consumers. And the latter are growing at a faster rate than the former."
http://www.vdare.com/buchanan/090119_gop.htm
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