Central banks stepping up dollar dump

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades.

Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63 percent of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That’s the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase.

World leaders are acting on threats to dump the dollar while the Obama administration shows a willingness to tolerate a weaker currency in an effort to boost exports and the economy as long as it doesn’t drive away the nation’s creditors. The diversification signals that the currency won’t rebound anytime soon after losing 10.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis the past six months, the biggest drop since 1991.

“Global central banks are getting more serious about diversification, whereas in the past they used to just talk about it,” said Steven Englander, a former Federal Reserve researcher who is now the chief U.S. currency strategist at Barclays in New York. “It looks like they are really backing away from the dollar.”

Attack on dollar mirrors tactics of Saul Alinsky and Cloward-Pivin; White House has no answer

                       U.S. dollar versus euro                 

A strategy similar to one conceived by radical pathfinders such as Saul Alinsky to defeat American institutions that stood in their way is now being deployed by foreign governments against the United States.

At stake is the value of the dollar, the extent of American power and influence and whatever remains of America's claim to exceptionalism.

No weapons are necessary. Rival governments, some of them allies and some adversaries, can talk the dollar down any time they want, as China, France, japan, Russia and the Gulf oil states did last week by suggesting that they might end dollar-denominated oil dealings.

Those oil deallings are a constant source of demand for dollars, which helps the dollar to maintain its value. If that demand goes away, the value of the dollar will drop even further than it has.

A lasting drop in the dollar's value would register with American consumers as an increase in the price of imports.

Saul Alinsky's Rule 3: "Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy." Look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety and uncertainty. (This happens all the time. Watch how many organizations under attack are blind-sided by seemingly irrelevant arguments that they are then forced to address.)

RULE 8: "Keep the pressure on. Never let up." Keep trying new things to keep the opposition off balance. As the opposition masters one approach, hit them from the flank with something new. (Attack, attack, attack from all sides, never giving the reeling organization a chance to rest, regroup, recover and re-strategize.)

Radical professors Richard Cloward and Frances Pivin refined Alinsky's rules into a strategy: attack a target institutions repeatedly with more and more demands, eventually overwhelming it.

How far America's competitors and adversaries pursue their current course remains to be seen. What seems to be clear is that the Obama administration is without weapons or will to effectively defend the dollar.

As a result, the challengers appear to be in position to hammer the dollar any time they want by recruiting new allies for an ever-widening attack.

"The US dollar is being hurt by the continued talk of a shift away from a dollar-centric world," Kit Juckes, an analyst at currency traders ECU Group, was quoted as saying.

"Three conclusions stand out very clearly. Firstly, the shift in economic power away from the G7 economies is continuing. "Secondly, there is a growing acceptance amongst those winners that one consequence of this power shift will be to strengthen their currencies.

"And, finally, as long as the US economy is not strong enough for any rise in interest rates to be conceivable for a long time, the dollar's underlying downtrend will remain in place."

To replace the dollar, the challengers would switch to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar," added Fisk, citing Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources.

Somewhere, the ghosts of America's radical pioneers must be smiling.