Giveaways and low interest rates not enough to lift housing out of its 12-year low

THE ONLY REAL SURPRISE in the latest disastrous batch of data on housing is that anybody is surprised.

With the $8,000 tax credit originally set to expire, housing starts plunged nearly 11% in October, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529.000 units. That put new home construction back to the dismal levels of last spring before a temporary blip lifted housing activity during the warm-weather months.

Even though the home-buying subsidy was extended through next March and expanded beyond first-time buyers, there's little evidence that these giveaways are working. Applications for mortgages for home purchases, for instance, fell to a 12-year low last week even with a 30-year mortgage going for well under 5%.

For reasons best understood themselves, analysts had forecast an uptick in housing starts to the 600,000 annual rate in October from September's 592,000 pace. While the lowest fixed mortgage rates and reduced home prices have kept housing from collapsing further, the 10.2% unemployment is working against home buying. Meantime, foreclosures, which are running at 300,000 a month are adding to the inventory of homes available for sale.

In other words, prospective buyers have an array of houses available to them in most regions at knock-down prices. But there's no reason for them to hurry while apartment rents are tumbling. Builders, meanwhile, would be loath to build new houses on spec, even if their banker would provide the financing.