Divide and conquer: how Romney can win the nomination

Next week's Republican gubernatorial primaries in Michigan and Tennessee will likely determine the next governors of those two vote-rich states, but also could provide a playbook for Mitt Romney in the '12 presidential primary.

That's because the current GOP frontrunners in both races, Rick Snyder and Bill Haslam, have run to the political center, an uncommon tack in a primary but one that's paying off given the multi-candidate fields. Neither state has a runoff, allowing the winner to win a plurality w/ moderates and even some crossover voters.

Like Romney, both Snyder and Haslam also have been running on their business backgrounds, and have spent plenty of their own money into the races to propel them into the lead. Romney, likewise, has an early and sizable fundraising edge and can also self-fund.

The Michigan primary should be particularly compelling to Romney, given that it's his home state, and a critical '12 battleground. Snyder's boasting of being a turnaround specialist is almost identical to Romney's expected message, one that will be more business-focused than in '08. The economic recession has hit Michigan as hard as any state, and for Republicans to have a shot at defeating Obama in 2012 (with an economic contrast message), they'll need to put it in play.

Much of Snyder and Haslam's success has as much to do with circumstance as the current ideological mood of the country. The GOP base is fired up across the country, but in these races, support is split up between multiple conservative candidates (Wamp/Ramsey in TN, Cox/Hoekstra/Bouchard in MI). Looking ahead, Romney could benefit from a similar scenario, facing a slew of conservatives (Daniels/Thune/Santorum) splitting up attention and the activist vote.

After all, that's how John McCain won the GOP nomination in '08, Dole in '96 and ditto George H.W. Bush in '88. All were disliked by the base, but won regardless. History could well repeat itself in '12.