Firedoglake rates Michigan's primary election contests

Michigan

Governor–Perhaps the biggest action tonight will be Governor’s race here. Both parties feature competitive primaries. The latest polling shows a legitimate three-way race on the Republican side among Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra and businessman Rick Snyder. Snyder owns a very small lead and millions of his personal wealth to spend on the race. On the Democratic side, it’s a battle between State Speaker of the House Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Bernero was endorsed by the AFL-CIO, which is important in this labor-heavy state. He currently has a modest lead in the polls.

MI-01—Democrat Bart Stupak’s retirement from this fairly conservative district has Republicans viewing it as a possible pick-up. The two big Republicans running for the seat are Dan Benishek and Jason Allen. A poll from a few weeks ago had them effectively tied. Benishek banked a lot of national donations when he entered the race right after Stupak’s health care vote. Democrat Gary McDowell is unopposed.

MI-02–Conservative Pete Hoekstra is retiring from this right-wing district to run for Governor. Seven Republicans are fighting to succeed him. Given the district’s leanings and the election climate, the winner of this crowded primary will likely end up in Congress. A “Grand Rapids Press” poll gives former pro football player Jay Riemersma the lead with only 22 percent. Bill Huizenga and Bill Cooper are tied at 15 percent. With such a huge field and even spread in the poll, almost any of them could win tonight.

MI-03–Another Republican-leaning district with a retiring Republican has produced a GOP feeding frenzy. The fight is among Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman and Steve Heacock. The latest poll gives Amash a six-point lead with 28 percent to Hardiman’s 23 and Heacock’s 17. An endorsement from the Club for Growth is benefiting Amash.

MI-07–Freshman Dem Mark Schauer is in a swing district, and his race is rated a “Democratic Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report. This could be a pick-up opportunity for Republicans; their primary is between Brian Rooney and former Rep. Tim Walberg. Schauer beat then-incumbent Walberg in 2008. The only reference to any public polling I have seen on this race indicates Walberg has a significant lead.

MI-09–Freshman Dem Gary Peters is in better shape. His district is more blue and his race is rated “Likely Democratic.” But with a big GOP wave, it is possible he could lose. Four Republicans want the right to take him on, but the real fight is between Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski and Paul Welday.

MI-13–Longtime incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in serious trouble. Her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, was forced out of office in disgrace after pleading guilty to several crimes, and he now faces trial on federal charges. The fallout from that is clearly hurting his mother. While several Democrats are challenging her, the most prominent opponent is Hansen Clarke. A poll from last month had Clarke beating Kilpatrick, 44-31