PA turning red; GOP may gain 7 seats in House, 1 in Senate

PHILADELPHIA, Pa. -- Two years after Pennsylvania gave its 21 electoral votes to Barack Obama and four years after it elected a new Democratic senator and unseated four Republican congressmen, signs are strong that the Keystone State may be shifting into the Republican column this fall and in a big way.

Republicans candidates said the main reason for the change in fortunes was voters souring on President Obama, which won the state 54% to 44% over Sen. John McCain in 2008.

The most recent Rasmussen Poll showed that Republicans are favored to take both the seat of Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter (who lost the May primary to Rep. Joe Sestak), with conservative GOPer Pat Toomey leading Sestak by a margin of 45% to 39% statewide.

In the race for the governor, which Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell is relinquishing after eight years, Republican State Atty. Gen. Tom Corbett holds a healthy 49% to 33% lead over Democrat Dan Onorato, the Allegheny County executive.

In addition, after two straight election cycles of U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania going from Republican to Democrat (the GOP lost four House seats in the state in ’06, and one in ’08), both pundits and pols are saying that Republicans could pick up as many as seven in the state.

Toomey leads Sestak 45% to 38% in Pennsylvania Senate race

Congressman Joe Sestak’s post-primary bounce appears to over, and he now trails Republican rival Pat Toomey by seven points in the U.S. Senate contest in Pennsylvania.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey with 45% support, while Sestak earns 38%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate in the race, and 12% are undecided.

Two weeks ago, just after his widely covered primary victory over longtime Senator Arlen Specter, Sestak posted a modest four-point lead lead over Toomey.

Prior to the primary, however, Toomey tended to enjoy modest leads over Sestak.

The current polling shows that 19% of Democratic voters are undecided or prefer some other candidate. Only 7% of Republicans fall into this category. That suggests Sestak has some work remaining to unify his party following the primary battle.

Toomey vs. Sestak in PA will be referendum on Obama's agenda

The Associated Press has just called the Pennsylvania Senate primary for Joe Sestak, putting an end to Sen. Arlen Specter's political career. It's good to see that Specter's craven political maneuverings have finally caught up with him. Sestak will likely present a more difficult challenge for Republican Pat Toomey in the general election (by significantly weakening the anti-incumbent argument), but it will be refreshing to watch a race that will present a clear ideological contrast. If Toomey wins the race, it will be very hard to portray it as anything other than a rejection of Obama's agenda in a state that has trended Democrat in recent election cycles.

If it's Tuesday I must be a Republicrat

Pat Toomey has taken a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Sen. Arlen Specter in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac poll shows, as the health care law remains unpopular among voters in the key swing state and President Obama's job approval rating has turned negative.

Pennsylvania voters now disapprove of the health care law by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin -- and by a 39 percent to 20 percent margin, they say they're more likely to vote against a lawmaker who supported Obamacare.