How bad is it for the Democrats? Honolulu might send a Republican to Congress in a special election

Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has the advantage in the special election for Congress, a new Hawai'i Poll has found, giving Republicans the best opportunity in two decades to claim the urban Honolulu district.

Djou leads with 36 percent, former congressman Ed Case is chasing at 28 percent, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is trailing with 22 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided.

The poll, taken for The Advertiser and Hawai'i News Now, confirms fears among Democrats that Case and Hanabusa could split the Democratic vote in the winner-take-all election and help Djou score a rare Republican upset.

The poll was conducted by Ward Research from April 23 through April 28 among 349 voters who said they were likely to mail back their ballots in the May 22 election. The margin of error was 5.2 percentage points.

"Right now, for me, it's about fiscal responsibility," said Walter Yuen, a retired flight attendant who lives in Hawai'i Kai and is leaning toward Djou.

Yuen believes federal and state lawmakers rely too much on tax increases to maintain governments that have grown too large. "We've got to learn how to control our spending," he said. "If I have to do it, they should have to do it."

Special election coming in John Murtha's PA district, which voted for Kerry in '04, McCain in '08

Without Murtha in the 12th district, however, the special election will be seriously contested. Murtha's district is the only one in the country won by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 and by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008, according to Republican sources, and that trend line coupled with the volatile national environment for Democrats ensures Republicans will heavily target the contest.

Prior to Murtha's passing, there were two Republicans in the race: 2008 nominee Bill Russell and businessman Tim Burns. It remains to be seen whether either or both men run in the special election although, regardless, it is a certainty the field will grow as ambitious Republicans (and Democrats) see the chance to get to Congress in an abbreviated campaign.