Pocketbook issues will be decisive; other issues not so much

Watching the news, Americans could be forgiven if they thought the November elections were a referendum on the New York mosque controversy.

Before the mosque took center stage, the elections were centered on Charlie Rangel's scandal, gay marriage, the immigration debate, the BP oil spill. Next week it will be something else.

So many headlines, so little real impact. Actually, there's nothing special about the way 2010 is leaning. It is a classic, pocketbook-hurting, message-sending midterm election.

How could it be otherwise? With millions unemployed, millions more under-employed, a vicious recession in the recent past and a possible double-dip underway, people are focused on the bread and butter of their lives.

Even if Democrats are blameless for these affairs, they are the party in power. Voting against them is a logical, time-honored response from weary, unhappy citizens who have run out of patience. Whatever you think of the stimulus bill, health care reform, and cap-and-trade, the main cause of Democratic distress isn't promoting liberal legislation but simply being in charge when bad things are happening to the nation's economy.

Goodness knows, the election won't signal that voters have fallen in love with the Republicans. Every poll shows that Americans don't like or trust either party right now.

People don't want to reward the Democrats for what they see as underperformance after overpromising on the economy. At the same time, most Americans have no desire to put the Tea Party-influenced Republicans in charge. So people will let the parties fight it out in D.C. by giving each side some turf.

Americans know what they're getting with split-party control. Since Dwight Eisenhower took the White House in 1952, one party has been fully in charge of the executive and legislative branches for just 20 of the 58 years. Obama was lucky enough to have swollen Democratic majorities for his first two years as President, and he has legislative accomplishments to show for it. It's a good thing for him, too, because even if he serves two terms, the President will almost certainly never have the party margins to do much again.