Look for recovery in May, history suggests

Using calculations as baseless, reckless, self-serving and hare-brained as those used by politicians in their short-sale of America's future, I can now make a fearless prediction.

The recession will end.

I have no idea when it will end, and neither do the politicians.

I have, however, consulted the recent play-by-play recession analysis prepared by Reasononline and have concluded that national administrations and congresses vary greatly in their grasp of recession politics.

First, bear in mind that the real objective of politicians at times of economic difficulty is to enact remedies shortly before recessions end, so the politicians can claim credit for having ended them.
On three occasions since World War II, the politicians have nailed it by enacting recovery legislation in the same months as the recessions were later found to have ended. In October, 1949, durng the Truman administration, Congress acted to end an 11-month recession. In April 1958, and again three months later, during the Eisenhower administration, Congress acted to end an eight-month recession. In March, 1975, in July, 1976, and in May, 1977, during the Ford and Carter administrations, Congress passed bills intended to end a 16-month recession.

Following up on the Eisenhower administration's bullseye, the newly seated Kennedy administration was a little slow on the draw. In May, 1961, it pushed through recovery legislation to end a recession that was later found to have ended in February.

In August, 1971, the Nixon administation goosed the economy nine months after the recession had ended. Critics were merciless in those days. Nixon subsequently resigned to stave off impeachment.

The Ford administration rebounded, nailing a recovery that started in March, 1975. The recovery was so becoming that the Carter administration was still getting into the act in May, 1977, whcn it goosed a recovery that had started 26 months earlier.

In January, 1983, President Reagan won enactment of recovery legislation for a two-month recession that had expired two months earlier.

The first Bush administration was slow on the draw, moving in December, 1991 against a recession that had ended 10 months earlier. The second Bush administration did better, declaring war in June 2001 against a recession that dragged on for five more months.

Here's the good news. Given the fact that the politicians have missed recession endings by a total of 29 months, over eight episodes, the average miss is only three and a half months. Despite the dire, even apocalyptic, warnings from President Barack Obama's camp, look for things to start looking survivable in May.

Addendum: for those who are unversed in economics and finance, a short sale is the sale of an asset one does not own in the expectation that it will be worth less in the future than it is now. In enacting Obama's stimulus proposal, that's essentially what the Democrats are doing to America today, saddling the generations that follow with an economy crippled by debt and controlled by socialists bent on controlling American citizens as never before.

http://reason.com/blog/show/131636.html