Only 32 percent of indies want Democrats to control Congress

WASHINGTON (AP) - Independents who embraced President Barack Obama's call for change in 2008 are ready for a shift again, and that's worrisome news for Democrats.

Only 32 percent of those citing no allegiance to either major party say they want Democrats to keep control of Congress in this November's elections, according to combined results of recent Associated Press-GfK polls. That's way down from the 52 percent of independents who backed Obama over Republican Sen. John McCain two years ago, and the 49 percent to 41 percent edge by which they preferred Democratic candidates for the House in that election, according to exit polls of voters.

Independents voice especially strong concerns about the economy, with 9 in 10 calling it a top problem and no other issue coming close, the analysis of the AP-GfK polls shows. While Democrats and Republicans rank the economy the No. 1 problem in similar numbers, they are nearly as worried about their No. 2 issues, health care for Democrats and terrorism for Republicans.

Ominously for Democrats, independents trust Republicans more on the economy by a modest but telling 42 percent to 36 percent. That's bad news for the party that controls the White House and Congress at a time of near 10 percent unemployment and the slow economic recovery.

"People are just struggling, they need a job but there's nowhere to get a job," said independent Leilani Buxman, 55, of Greeley, Colo. Of Obama, she said, "It seems like he talks but he doesn't do anything about it."

Both parties court independents for obvious reasons. Besides their sheer number - 4 in 10 describe themselves as independents in combined AP-GfK polling for April, May and June - they are a crucial swing group.

To try winning them over, Republicans say they will contrast Obama's campaign promises of change with the huge spending programs he's approved. Democrats say they will warn independents that a GOP victory will revive that party's efforts to cut taxes for the rich and transform Social Security into risky private investment accounts.

Targeting independents is tricky, though, because the makeup of independents evolves over time.

Their numbers have swollen from 3 in 10 two years ago, due partly to the weakened political loyalties that typify years without presidential elections. While some are conservatives dissatisfied with Republicans, similar numbers are disillusioned Democrats, underscoring a frustration with the party in power often seen when the economy is bad.

Reflecting these conflicting dynamics, today's independents are likelier to be minorities, conservatives, less educated, lower paid and from rural areas than they were in 2008. Sixty-seven percent think the country is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 59 percent of all voters who think so.

"Why not stop bickering and do something. Pull together," said Chip A. Hoeye, 54, of Fort Atkinson, Wis., an independent and Obama voter who says he doesn't care which party controls Congress because of their constant battling.

Independents trust Republicans far more than Democrats for handling national security, but give Democrats a 42 percent to 36 percent edge for dealing with health care - a potential sign that distrust over Obama's signature issue is receding.

He's not on the ballot, but 41% will vote against Obama's policies

Voters will go to the polls this November with control of Congress at stake. Yet most voters say when they pull that lever, they will be sending a message to the White House, according to a Fox News poll.

The poll, released Friday, finds that 41 percent of voters will cast their ballots to register opposition to President Obama's policies. A third (33 percent) will vote to express their support. The policies of the administration will not be a factor for 20 percent of voters.

Most Republicans — 72 percent — describe their midterm vote as expressing opposition to the Obama administration. That's a bit higher than the 64 percent of Democrats who say their vote will express support. One in 10 Democrats will vote to express opposition to the president (11 percent).

Independents are nearly 20 percentage points more likely to say their vote will express opposition (41 percent) rather than support (23 percent) for Obama policies. Thirty-three percent of independents say the administration won't influence their vote.

If the election were held today, 41 percent of voters would back the Republican candidate in their congressional district and 37 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate. That's little changed from two weeks ago when the vote favored the Republican candidate by 42-40 percent (June 29-30).

57% of indies disapprove of Obama's performance

A new Marist poll of registered voters nationwide puts Barack Obama’s approval at just 44%, the same as the Rasmussen tracking poll this weekend. The numbers among independents will really rattle the White House:

Fewer registered voters nationwide — 44% — currently approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance than disapprove — 47%. When Marist last asked about the president’s approval rating in December, 46% thought well of Obama’s job performance while 44% gave him low marks.

Perhaps, particularly concerning for Mr. Obama is the drop in support among Independents. For the first time since taking office, a majority of Independents — 57% — disapproves of how he is doing in the role. 29% approve, and 14% are unsure.

Republicans lead by 7 on generic ballot, by 20 among independent voters

Republican candidates lead Democrats by seven points in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The new national telephone survey shows that 45% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Voter support for GOP congressional candidates is down one point from last week, while support for Democrats is up a point.

Republicans started the year ahead by nine points -- their largest lead in several years -- while support for Democrats fell to its lowest level in years. Republicans have held the lead on the ballot for several months now.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the GOP leads this week by a 45% to 25% margin.