Thursday, August 19, 2010

Democrat strategist: Obama "is a walking radioactive disaster," trails George W. Bush by 6 points in seats held by vulnerable Dems

Two years after his coattails helped sweep two dozen Democrats into office, President Obama is proving more a boon to Republicans than to Democrats during the midterm elections. His poll numbers are so morose that Democrats are planning ways to avoid his shadow, while Republicans plot strategies aimed at tying Obama to every incumbent member of Congress they can.

The advice from Democratic consultants and strategists is almost unanimous: Run away from the president, and fast. A prominent Democratic pollster is circulating a survey that shows George W. Bush is 6 points more popular than President Obama in "Frontline" districts -- seats held by Democrats that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sees as most vulnerable to Republican takeover. That Bush is more popular than Obama in Democratic-held seats is cause for outright fear.

But disassociating oneself from an incumbent president is never easy, and Democrats have to walk a narrow line. Based on conversations with more than a dozen Democratic political operatives, here's some advice for candidates looking to chart their own course, one that will send them back to the 112th Congress:

Walk, Don't Run: "He is a walking radioactive disaster," one senior Democratic operative said of the president. But any effort to seriously distance oneself from Obama is dangerous for an incumbent; go too hard against the president and voters think the candidate is faking it.

"People know that a Democratic congressman will agree with a Democratic president more often than not, so the worst thing a candidate can do is manufacture differences with the president," said Phil Singer, a party strategist and former top aide to Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign. "Voters can spot a fake right away."

What's more, virtually every Democratic strategist agreed, if the president of the United States shows up in a candidate's home state, the candidate should show up too. Dodging Obama by claiming a scheduling conflict only breeds more stories about how much of a drag he is, and about how desperate Democrats are to avoid him.

Use Him Where It Makes Sense: Obama may not be the electoral draw he once was, but that's not to say he's as poisonous as Bush was during his final term. There are some endangered Dems in some very blue states this year, and those incumbents -- like Sens. Patty Murray and Barbara Boxer -- can use the fundraising help to ward off wealthy GOP challengers. Obama is popular enough in Washington state and California that he's a political draw, too.

And Obama is still beloved among those Democrats willing to open up their checkbooks, as his multi-day campaign swing this week attests. There are plenty of members of Congress who don't want to appear alongside Obama, but they'd sure love it if the DCCC were to fully fund independent expenditure operations on their behalves. Keeping Obama with the money crowd, and showing up when he holds a fundraiser that will directly benefit a candidate, is the best way to use his limited time between now and Election Day.

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