Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic U.S. House incumbents could be in big trouble in Pennsylvania, which has up to eight vulnerable seats held by their party, several of which only recently switched from GOP control in the Democratic wave elections of 2006 and 2008. The GOP holds a 48-39 generic-ballot advantage among likely voters in the Keystone State.
In Illinois, Democrats are in safer territory, defending no more than three swing seats and holding a 46-40 lead over the Republican Party. Nearly all of the tenuous Democratic seats in both states, however, are in heavily white, suburban, exurban, or small-city districts that voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, and they could show an even greater Republican trend than the overall statewide figure.
In Illinois, Democrats are actually slightly more unified around their party’s candidates for Congress than are the Republicans, but independents go for the GOP by a 40-25 margin. In Pennsylvania, Democrats, as in the gubernatorial race, are suffering from significant and equal proportions of Democratic voters going for the GOP and remaining undecided, such that only 72% of Democrats support their party’s generic Congressional candidate, considerably lower than the 84% of Republicans who go for their party.
The relatively few Pennsylvania unaffiliateds favor the GOP, 42-19.
In Pennsylvania, 49% say Obama’s support would make them less likely to vote for his endorsed candidate, to 20% who say it would make them more likely, and 31% who say it would make no difference.
Sarah Palin is also pretty toxic, but has slightly better numbers overall. Republicans are more favorable to her support than Democrats are to Obama, and independents only buck her endorsement 21-36, versus 15-50 for Obama.
Obama, naturally, fares somewhat better in Illinois than does Palin, though his support is still seen as a negative.
“Pennsylvania is going to be a particularly tough state for Democrats this year, but even Illinois isn’t much better,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Showing posts with label Illinois. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Illinois. Show all posts
Friday, August 20, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Rothenberg: 11 Senate seats held by Democrats are in play
Until about 10 days ago, I agreed with the conventional wisdom that control of the House of Representatives was up for grabs this fall but that Republicans had yet to put the Senate into play. I no longer believe that.
The chances that the next Senate will have a Republican majority are not great, but even three months ago there were not enough Senate seats in play to imagine a Republican gain of 10 seats. Now there are, with 11 Democratic seats definitely competitive.
But at the same time that Republican prospects have brightened overall, they suddenly look less bright than previously in at least a couple of states: Nevada and Illinois.
Just a few months ago, Democratic nominees Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada and Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias looked like sure losers in their races, but their candidacies have been resuscitated by their GOP opponents.
Even Republican political operatives acknowledge privately that former Nevada state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle has been an even worse candidate than they had thought. And while recent polling in the Silver State may overstate Reid’s prospects in the fall, it seems clear that the contest has evolved from being purely a referendum on Reid and President Barack Obama to being a choice between Reid and Angle.
That’s a far less advantageous position for the challenger and a far better one for Reid. Angle’s prospects have now slipped from being a clear favorite to only 50-50.
Reid remains a political basket case, but he certainly has a fighting chance in a contest of two unappealing nominees. And Angle has the benefit of a Republican wind at her back that could still turn into a gale-force wind. Republicans might want to ship Angle out of the country for a few months to improve her prospects.
The chances that the next Senate will have a Republican majority are not great, but even three months ago there were not enough Senate seats in play to imagine a Republican gain of 10 seats. Now there are, with 11 Democratic seats definitely competitive.
But at the same time that Republican prospects have brightened overall, they suddenly look less bright than previously in at least a couple of states: Nevada and Illinois.
Just a few months ago, Democratic nominees Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada and Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias looked like sure losers in their races, but their candidacies have been resuscitated by their GOP opponents.
Even Republican political operatives acknowledge privately that former Nevada state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle has been an even worse candidate than they had thought. And while recent polling in the Silver State may overstate Reid’s prospects in the fall, it seems clear that the contest has evolved from being purely a referendum on Reid and President Barack Obama to being a choice between Reid and Angle.
That’s a far less advantageous position for the challenger and a far better one for Reid. Angle’s prospects have now slipped from being a clear favorite to only 50-50.
Reid remains a political basket case, but he certainly has a fighting chance in a contest of two unappealing nominees. And Angle has the benefit of a Republican wind at her back that could still turn into a gale-force wind. Republicans might want to ship Angle out of the country for a few months to improve her prospects.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Obama's leftist team is doing to the U.S. what it did to Illinois
"Unsustainable" is a scary word that recently entered political discourse, coming authoritatively from Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf. Unsustainability is the operative moniker for Barack Obama's massive deficit spending, which Elmendorf said "cannot be solved through minor tinkering."
The CBO predicts an increase in our public debt from $7.5 trillion at the end of 2009 to $20.3 trillion at the end of 2020 if Obama's fiscal 2011 budget is implemented. As a percentage of gross domestic product, the debt will rise to 90% from 53%.
Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., sharpened the focus by asking the CBO director: "What's going to be necessary (is) either a 25% increase in taxes or a 20% reduction in spending, or some combination thereof. Is that correct?" Elmendorf replied "yes."
Americans are beginning to wonder if Greece is the picture of the U.S.' future. But we need look no further than the place where Obama and his team were trained in community organizing and bully tactics to redistribute the wealth: Illinois.
Illinois was the stomping ground for years for Obama, his top advisers Rahm Emanuel, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod, and his appointees such as Secretary of Education Arne Duncan. After they promoted themselves to Washington to run the country, other Obama associates who didn't make the cut continued to run Illinois into the ground, as the Illinois unemployment rate jumped from less than 5% to nearly 11%.
For years, we thought California was the most fiscally irresponsible of all 50 states, but Illinois has now taken the lead. A lengthy news article in the New York Times was headlined: "Illinois Stops Paying Its Bills, but Can't Stop Digging Hole."
Under years of Democratic leadership, Illinois has refused to honor its obligations, cut spending or trim its shockingly large deficit, which at $12 billion per year approaches nearly half its budget. As a result, Illinois' credit rating has been downgraded and it pays a massive amount in interest on its loans.
That's like a family making $50,000 but spending $75,000 each year. Obviously, it won't take long before such a family would lose everything it has.
The CBO predicts an increase in our public debt from $7.5 trillion at the end of 2009 to $20.3 trillion at the end of 2020 if Obama's fiscal 2011 budget is implemented. As a percentage of gross domestic product, the debt will rise to 90% from 53%.
Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., sharpened the focus by asking the CBO director: "What's going to be necessary (is) either a 25% increase in taxes or a 20% reduction in spending, or some combination thereof. Is that correct?" Elmendorf replied "yes."
Americans are beginning to wonder if Greece is the picture of the U.S.' future. But we need look no further than the place where Obama and his team were trained in community organizing and bully tactics to redistribute the wealth: Illinois.
Illinois was the stomping ground for years for Obama, his top advisers Rahm Emanuel, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod, and his appointees such as Secretary of Education Arne Duncan. After they promoted themselves to Washington to run the country, other Obama associates who didn't make the cut continued to run Illinois into the ground, as the Illinois unemployment rate jumped from less than 5% to nearly 11%.
For years, we thought California was the most fiscally irresponsible of all 50 states, but Illinois has now taken the lead. A lengthy news article in the New York Times was headlined: "Illinois Stops Paying Its Bills, but Can't Stop Digging Hole."
Under years of Democratic leadership, Illinois has refused to honor its obligations, cut spending or trim its shockingly large deficit, which at $12 billion per year approaches nearly half its budget. As a result, Illinois' credit rating has been downgraded and it pays a massive amount in interest on its loans.
That's like a family making $50,000 but spending $75,000 each year. Obviously, it won't take long before such a family would lose everything it has.
Monday, July 5, 2010
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Illinois, where Obama's career was born, no longer pays its bills
CHICAGO — Even by the standards of this deficit-ridden state, Illinois’s comptroller, Daniel W. Hynes, faces an ugly balance sheet. Precisely how ugly becomes clear when he beckons you into his office to examine his daily briefing memo.
“This is what the state owes right now to schools, rehabilitation centers, child care, the state university — and it’s getting worse every single day,” he says in his downtown office.
Mr. Hynes shakes his head. “This is not some esoteric budget issue; we are not paying bills for absolutely essential services,” he says. “That is obscene.”
For the last few years, California stood more or less unchallenged as a symbol of the fiscal collapse of states during the recession. Now Illinois has shouldered to the fore, as its dysfunctional political class refuses to pay the state’s bills and refuses to take the painful steps — cuts and tax increases — to close a deficit of at least $12 billion, equal to nearly half the state’s budget.
Then there is the spectacularly mismanaged pension system, which is at least 50 percent underfunded and, analysts warn, could push Illinois into insolvency if the economy fails to pick up.
States cannot go bankrupt, technically, but signs of fiscal crackup are easy to see. Legislators left the capital this month without deciding how to pay 26 percent of the state budget. The governor proposes to borrow $3.5 billion to cover a year’s worth of pension payments, a step that would cost about $1 billion in interest. And every major rating agency has downgraded the state; Illinois now pays millions of dollars more to insure its debt than any other state in the nation.
“This is what the state owes right now to schools, rehabilitation centers, child care, the state university — and it’s getting worse every single day,” he says in his downtown office.
Mr. Hynes shakes his head. “This is not some esoteric budget issue; we are not paying bills for absolutely essential services,” he says. “That is obscene.”
For the last few years, California stood more or less unchallenged as a symbol of the fiscal collapse of states during the recession. Now Illinois has shouldered to the fore, as its dysfunctional political class refuses to pay the state’s bills and refuses to take the painful steps — cuts and tax increases — to close a deficit of at least $12 billion, equal to nearly half the state’s budget.
Then there is the spectacularly mismanaged pension system, which is at least 50 percent underfunded and, analysts warn, could push Illinois into insolvency if the economy fails to pick up.
States cannot go bankrupt, technically, but signs of fiscal crackup are easy to see. Legislators left the capital this month without deciding how to pay 26 percent of the state budget. The governor proposes to borrow $3.5 billion to cover a year’s worth of pension payments, a step that would cost about $1 billion in interest. And every major rating agency has downgraded the state; Illinois now pays millions of dollars more to insure its debt than any other state in the nation.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
As curtains open on former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's trial, Illinois Democrats "are desperate to pretend they don't know him"
The infamous Tammany Hall boss George Washington Plunkitt distinguished between “honest graft” and “dishonest graft.” Dishonest graft, he said, meant actual theft from the treasury, or shaking down criminals for bribes. Honest graft, on the other hand, simply meant taking advantage of private deals that arose in the course of public office. “I might sum up the whole thing by sayin’: I seen my opportunities and I took ‘em,” he said.
Former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich starts his federal trial today. And the Illinois Democrats who clung to his coattails for years are desperate to pretend they don’t know him. Back in 2003, Rep. Jan Schakowsky proclaimed of Blago: “He really is very smart. I don’t laugh at the idea [of his running for President] at all.” She added that when he walked into a room, “there was this crackle of electricity. Everyone wanted to touch him.”
That electricity prompted Rep. Schakowsky to donate $28,000 to Blago’s campaigns for governor. Her husband, convicted felon and political strategist Robert Creamer, made $541,000 helping Blago get elected in 2002. She lobbied him heavily in November 2008 in the hope that he would appoint her to fill the Senate seat being vacated by Barack Obama, and is thought to be “Senate Candidate 3” in the original criminal complaint.
Now she is trying to laugh it off, nervously telling the Politico that the trial will be a “soap opera.” She and other Illinois Democrats are trying to pretend that even though Blago’s alleged crimes involved prominent figures in federal, state, and local government, he was a lone wolf. But they are nervous, because the connections are there. (Is it just a coincidence that President Obama chose last weekend, of all others, to visit Chicago?)
The story they are all sticking to is that Blago is a special case–and he has done his best to prove them right. Rather than laying low, he has used every camera and open mic to denounce the federal prosecutor and the allies who abandoned him. Yet selling the Senate seat–the “f***ing valuable thing,” to quote Blago–was what Plunkitt would have recognized as “honest graft.” It is the rule in Chicago, not the exception.
Former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich starts his federal trial today. And the Illinois Democrats who clung to his coattails for years are desperate to pretend they don’t know him. Back in 2003, Rep. Jan Schakowsky proclaimed of Blago: “He really is very smart. I don’t laugh at the idea [of his running for President] at all.” She added that when he walked into a room, “there was this crackle of electricity. Everyone wanted to touch him.”
That electricity prompted Rep. Schakowsky to donate $28,000 to Blago’s campaigns for governor. Her husband, convicted felon and political strategist Robert Creamer, made $541,000 helping Blago get elected in 2002. She lobbied him heavily in November 2008 in the hope that he would appoint her to fill the Senate seat being vacated by Barack Obama, and is thought to be “Senate Candidate 3” in the original criminal complaint.
Now she is trying to laugh it off, nervously telling the Politico that the trial will be a “soap opera.” She and other Illinois Democrats are trying to pretend that even though Blago’s alleged crimes involved prominent figures in federal, state, and local government, he was a lone wolf. But they are nervous, because the connections are there. (Is it just a coincidence that President Obama chose last weekend, of all others, to visit Chicago?)
The story they are all sticking to is that Blago is a special case–and he has done his best to prove them right. Rather than laying low, he has used every camera and open mic to denounce the federal prosecutor and the allies who abandoned him. Yet selling the Senate seat–the “f***ing valuable thing,” to quote Blago–was what Plunkitt would have recognized as “honest graft.” It is the rule in Chicago, not the exception.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Dems face election routs in Illinois and Nevada
From Rasmussen:
Illinois Senate: Kirk (R) 46%, Giannoulias (D) 38%
Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 45%, Quinn (D) 38%
Nevada Senate: Harry Reid stuck at 40%, loses to all comers
Nevada Governor: Brian Sandoval (R) 53%, Rory Reid (D) 35%
Illinois Senate: Kirk (R) 46%, Giannoulias (D) 38%
Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 45%, Quinn (D) 38%
Nevada Senate: Harry Reid stuck at 40%, loses to all comers
Nevada Governor: Brian Sandoval (R) 53%, Rory Reid (D) 35%
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Challengers beating Democrats in Illinois
House incumbents rarely run behind challengers in polls. The reason is that the incumbent is at least somewhat well known, having appeared on the ballot and having won an election at least once, while the challenger in most cases is not well known at all. So it’s noteworthy when incumbents trail challengers in polls, as several House Democrats have this year.
Tom Bevan of realclearpolitics.com highlights some Illinois polls by a hitherto unknown firm, We Ask America; Bevan interviewed the head of the firm and says he’s convinced the firm knows what it’s doing. The results are devastating.
Tom Bevan of realclearpolitics.com highlights some Illinois polls by a hitherto unknown firm, We Ask America; Bevan interviewed the head of the firm and says he’s convinced the firm knows what it’s doing. The results are devastating.
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