Obama endorsement toxic in Pennsylvania and Illinois

Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic U.S. House incumbents could be in big trouble in Pennsylvania, which has up to eight vulnerable seats held by their party, several of which only recently switched from GOP control in the Democratic wave elections of 2006 and 2008. The GOP holds a 48-39 generic-ballot advantage among likely voters in the Keystone State.

In Illinois, Democrats are in safer territory, defending no more than three swing seats and holding a 46-40 lead over the Republican Party. Nearly all of the tenuous Democratic seats in both states, however, are in heavily white, suburban, exurban, or small-city districts that voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, and they could show an even greater Republican trend than the overall statewide figure.

In Illinois, Democrats are actually slightly more unified around their party’s candidates for Congress than are the Republicans, but independents go for the GOP by a 40-25 margin. In Pennsylvania, Democrats, as in the gubernatorial race, are suffering from significant and equal proportions of Democratic voters going for the GOP and remaining undecided, such that only 72% of Democrats support their party’s generic Congressional candidate, considerably lower than the 84% of Republicans who go for their party.

The relatively few Pennsylvania unaffiliateds favor the GOP, 42-19.

In Pennsylvania, 49% say Obama’s support would make them less likely to vote for his endorsed candidate, to 20% who say it would make them more likely, and 31% who say it would make no difference.

Sarah Palin is also pretty toxic, but has slightly better numbers overall. Republicans are more favorable to her support than Democrats are to Obama, and independents only buck her endorsement 21-36, versus 15-50 for Obama.

Obama, naturally, fares somewhat better in Illinois than does Palin, though his support is still seen as a negative.

“Pennsylvania is going to be a particularly tough state for Democrats this year, but even Illinois isn’t much better,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.