Obama endorsement toxic in Pennsylvania and Illinois

Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic U.S. House incumbents could be in big trouble in Pennsylvania, which has up to eight vulnerable seats held by their party, several of which only recently switched from GOP control in the Democratic wave elections of 2006 and 2008. The GOP holds a 48-39 generic-ballot advantage among likely voters in the Keystone State.

In Illinois, Democrats are in safer territory, defending no more than three swing seats and holding a 46-40 lead over the Republican Party. Nearly all of the tenuous Democratic seats in both states, however, are in heavily white, suburban, exurban, or small-city districts that voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, and they could show an even greater Republican trend than the overall statewide figure.

In Illinois, Democrats are actually slightly more unified around their party’s candidates for Congress than are the Republicans, but independents go for the GOP by a 40-25 margin. In Pennsylvania, Democrats, as in the gubernatorial race, are suffering from significant and equal proportions of Democratic voters going for the GOP and remaining undecided, such that only 72% of Democrats support their party’s generic Congressional candidate, considerably lower than the 84% of Republicans who go for their party.

The relatively few Pennsylvania unaffiliateds favor the GOP, 42-19.

In Pennsylvania, 49% say Obama’s support would make them less likely to vote for his endorsed candidate, to 20% who say it would make them more likely, and 31% who say it would make no difference.

Sarah Palin is also pretty toxic, but has slightly better numbers overall. Republicans are more favorable to her support than Democrats are to Obama, and independents only buck her endorsement 21-36, versus 15-50 for Obama.

Obama, naturally, fares somewhat better in Illinois than does Palin, though his support is still seen as a negative.

“Pennsylvania is going to be a particularly tough state for Democrats this year, but even Illinois isn’t much better,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Obama leads all Republicans in 2012 matchup, but Huckabee and Romney are close and Paul runs strong with indendents

Barack Obama leads all of his potential Republican opponents in hypothetical 2012 match ups, and it's becoming increasingly clear from this monthly poll that there are two tiers of GOP candidates when it comes to electability.

Polling close to Obama are Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The President leads Huckabee 46-44 and Romney 45-42. They both do a good job of consolidating the GOP vote and holding a solid advantage with independents.

Doing less well are Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, and Ron Paul. Obama has a 47-39 advantage over Gingrich, a 50-41 against Palin, and 46-36 edge matched against Paul.

One thing that's very interesting about these numbers is that Ron Paul is the most popular out of the whole group with independents. They see him favorably by a 35/25 margin. The only other White House hopeful on positive ground with them is Romney at a +2 spread and they're very negative on the rest: -5 for Huckabee, -16 for Gingrich and Palin, and -17 for Obama. All five of the possible GOP contenders lead Obama with independents, but Paul does so by the widest margin at 46-28.

Tea Party candidate surges in Texas GOP primary

Tea Party candidate Debra Medina has surged and is now favored by 24 percent in the Texas Republican primary election for governor. If she continues to gain, she could force a runoff with Gov. Rick Perry, favored by 39 percent, and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who has 28 percent.

Public Policy Polling reports, "Medina is clearly riding the wave of discontent with the Republican establishment. Among primary voters who disapprove of the job the GOP in Congress is doing she actually leads with 37% to 32% for Perry and 22% for Hutchison. The problem for Medina is those folks only account for a third of the electorate and among the majority who are happy with the Republicans in Washington she's in a distant third at 17% to 48% for Perry and 27% for Hutchison. There may not end up being enough discontented Republican voters for her to move into the top two but she is nevertheless exceeding expectations.

"Hutchison's issues are twofold: voters trust Washington politicians even less than usual right now and she's simply not connecting with the conservative voters who dominate a GOP primary electorate. Asked whether they have more faith in Washington politicians or Austin politicians to solve Texas' problems 78% said the state level ones to just 3% picking the national level. And while Hutchison has a commanding 49-29 lead over Perry with moderate voters, she is in last place with conservatives. Perry leads the pack at 42% followed by Medina at 25% and Hutchison at 23%. 76% of likely primary voters are conservatives to only 20% who are moderates."