Unknowns pile up in election

The tipping point has arrived.

The mysteries and evolving influences of this campaign are now more impressive than the presumed facts.

The presumed facts are that Barack Obama leads in the polls, has more money, is favored by an adoring media horde, and is backed by America's reigning political thugocracy, out of Chicago.

And yet, John McCain and Sarah Palin are drawing huge, enthusiastic crowds that often manifest outright hostility to Obama. Commentator extraordinaire Michael Barone asked 12 New Yorkers whom they favor, and 11 of them said McCain-Palin. What are the odds?
The polls do not take account of the Bradley Effect, the tendency of white voters to favor black candidates in polls more frequently than they vote for them in elections.

Surprises also may be aborning in court houses around the country, growing out of ACORN's determination to see that every living thing votes somewhere and that as many dead people as possible drag themselves to polling places. Tony Rezko, Obama's chief fund raiser in the past, is talking to investigators in Chicago, and what he says may have the effect of shortening the long prison sentence he faces on corruption convictions.

The Bradley Effect alone, if it manifests itself, could wipe out Obama's lead in the polls. Any one of the other simmering issues could put McCain-Palin over the top.

There is also this. It has seemed to me for some time that McCain's choice is not between four years and eight years. It is between four years and no years. If he pledges to serve one term, he will unleash a realization among America's 150 million women that in four years they might break through the glass ceiling that has kept the Oval Office out of reach.

In four years, if McCain wins, their choices might be Sarah Palin or Hillary Clinton.