Of the 124 countries S&P ranks, only 17 have a triple A rating. Moody’s recently identified four triple A countries under pressure and warned that France and Germany are “resistant” while the U.S. and U.K. are only “resilient” to downgrade—financial idioms that mean we are closer to losing the vaunted mark.
Fitch recently downgraded Portugal’s debt; Greece’s problems are well-known and have put pressure on all of Europe and the Euro; and lest we think this can’t happen to a major industrial country, Japan was already downgraded to double A. Rating agencies are concerned about the heavy debt countries bear, which raises the cost of interest on new debt needed to finance growing deficits—a vortex that can be escaped only by making hard choices with suppurating results: bankruptcy, drastic cuts in spending, or raising revenue.
The markets are starting to show concern over U.S. debt, as the price of Treasuries fell last week, raising interest rates. Coincidentally, last week the CBO released an analysis of the entire 2011 budget proposal (excluding healthcare) and concludes, “If the President’s proposals were enacted, the federal government would record deficits of $1.5 trillion in 2010 and $1.3 trillion in 2011. Those deficits would amount to 10.3% and 8.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), respectively.” By comparison, Portugal’s deficit is 9.3% of their economy. And Greece must reduce its deficit from 8.7% of GDP in 2010 to less than 3% by 2010—the threshold the European Union considers “excessive”. That is a level the U.S. is not expected to reach ever, according to the CBO analysis.
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